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AEGIS ATLAS Intelligence Product

Philippines

Country Risk Snapshot • Travel Intelligence • ASCOPE/PMESII Planner Inputs

Source Confidence

Official advisory matched

Generated: Jul 30, 2026, 08:20 AM

Official Advisory
Level 2
Exercise Increased Caution
AEGIS Risk Index
47/100
Moderate
Trajectory
Concerning
AEGIS assesses a watch posture: conditions are manageable but vulnerable to triggering events.
Verification
Matched
Confirm official sources before action

Executive Summary

BLUF

Philippines is assessed at Level 2 with an AEGIS Risk Index of 47/100 (Moderate). Current trajectory is Concerning. Reissued after periodic review with minor edits. Exercise increased caution in the Philippines due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory. Do Not Travel to: The Sulu Archipelago, including the southern Sulu Sea, due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping . Marawi City in Mindanao due to terrorism and civil unrest . Reconsider Travel to: Other areas of Mindanao due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping . Country Summary: Terrorists and armed groups have carried out kidnappings, bombings, and other attacks targeting public areas like tourist sites, markets, and local government facilities in the Philippines. Violent crimes are also common in the Philippines such as robbery, kidnappings, and physical assaults. Protests happen in the Philippines and could turn violent and/or result in traffic jams and road closures with limited capacity of the local government to respond. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to certain areas of the country as stated below. Read the country information page for additional information on travel to the Philippines. If you decide to travel to the Philippines: Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your plans based on new information. Avoid demonstrations. Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. Review the Country Security Report for the Philippines. Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist . Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Information related to your travel. We highly recommend that you buy insurance before you travel. Check with your travel insurance provider about evacuation assistance, medical insurance, and trip cancellation coverage The Sulu Archipelago and Sulu Sea – Level 4: Do Not Travel Do not travel to these areas for any reason. Terrorist and armed groups in the Sulu Archipelago and the Sulu Sea have historically engaged in kidnappings for ransom on land and at sea, in addition to bombings and other attacks. These incidents often target foreign nationals, including U.S. citizens, local government entities, and security personnel. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to Sulu Archipelago and Sulu Sea. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in these areas. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas . Marawi City in Mindanao – Level 4: Do Not Travel Do not travel to these areas for any reason. Civilians face risk of death or injury from ongoing clashes between terrorist group remnants and Philippine security forces in Marawi. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to Marawi City. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens there. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas . Mindanao (except Davao City, Davao del Norte Province, Siargao Island, and the Dinagat Islands) – Level 3: Reconsider Travel Terrorist and armed groups in Mindanao have historically engaged in kidnappings for ransom, in addition to bombings and other attacks. These incidents often target foreign nationals, including U.S. citizens, as well as civilians, local government entities, and security forces. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to areas outside of Davao City, Davao del Norte Province, Siargao Island, and the Dinagat Islands. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in those areas. Visit the U.S. Department of State's country reports on terrorism to learn more. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas .

State Level 1–4

Official Advisory

Level 2Exercise Increased Caution

Reissued after periodic review with minor edits. Exercise increased caution in the Philippines due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory. Do Not Travel to: The Sulu Archipelago, including the southern Sulu Sea, due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping . Marawi City in Mindanao due to terrorism and civil unrest . Reconsider Travel to: Other areas of Mindanao due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping . Country Summary: Terrorists and armed groups have carried out kidnappings, bombings, and other attacks targeting public areas like tourist sites, markets, and local government facilities in the Philippines. Violent crimes are also common in the Philippines such as robbery, kidnappings, and physical assaults. Protests happen in the Philippines and could turn violent and/or result in traffic jams and road closures with limited capacity of the local government to respond. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to certain areas of the country as stated below. Read the country information page for additional information on travel to the Philippines. If you decide to travel to the Philippines: Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your plans based on new information. Avoid demonstrations. Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. Review the Country Security Report for the Philippines. Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist . Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Information related to your travel. We highly recommend that you buy insurance before you travel. Check with your travel insurance provider about evacuation assistance, medical insurance, and trip cancellation coverage The Sulu Archipelago and Sulu Sea – Level 4: Do Not Travel Do not travel to these areas for any reason. Terrorist and armed groups in the Sulu Archipelago and the Sulu Sea have historically engaged in kidnappings for ransom on land and at sea, in addition to bombings and other attacks. These incidents often target foreign nationals, including U.S. citizens, local government entities, and security personnel. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to Sulu Archipelago and Sulu Sea. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in these areas. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas . Marawi City in Mindanao – Level 4: Do Not Travel Do not travel to these areas for any reason. Civilians face risk of death or injury from ongoing clashes between terrorist group remnants and Philippine security forces in Marawi. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to Marawi City. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens there. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas . Mindanao (except Davao City, Davao del Norte Province, Siargao Island, and the Dinagat Islands) – Level 3: Reconsider Travel Terrorist and armed groups in Mindanao have historically engaged in kidnappings for ransom, in addition to bombings and other attacks. These incidents often target foreign nationals, including U.S. citizens, as well as civilians, local government entities, and security forces. Due to the risks, U.S. government employees working in the Philippines must obtain special authorization to travel to areas outside of Davao City, Davao del Norte Province, Siargao Island, and the Dinagat Islands. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in those areas. Visit the U.S. Department of State's country reports on terrorism to learn more. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas .

Source: U.S. Department of State

Confidence / Caveats

Source Status

Official advisory matched

AEGIS uses official advisories when matched, then supplements with reference, economic, security, event, and embassy-verification layers.

This packet supports planning awareness and should be validated against official travel, embassy, clearance, and command guidance before operational use.

Reference Layer

Country Reference Snapshot

Capital

Source-limited / verify

Region

Source-limited / verify

Subregion

Source-limited / verify

Population

Source-limited / verify

Currency

Source-limited / verify

Languages

Source-limited / verify

AEGIS 0–100 Category Scores

Threat Matrix

Crime

47/100 • Moderate

Terrorism

37/100 • Moderate

Civil Unrest

42/100 • Moderate

Health

37/100 • Moderate

Natural Hazard

45/100 • Moderate

Cyber

47/100 • Moderate

Collection Risk

52/100 • Moderate

Kidnapping

42/100 • Moderate

PMESII-Economic

Economic Risk

Low Economic Stress • score 29/100

Economic stress is treated as a driver for unrest, migration, corruption, criminal pressure, institutional capacity, and resiliency. It informs PMESII-Economic and trajectory analysis but does not replace official advisory guidance.

  • Recent GDP growth is 4.4%, giving a baseline indication of economic direction.
  • Inflation is not currently the dominant economic stress signal in the latest World Bank indicator set.
  • Unemployment is below the primary AEGIS watch threshold in the latest indicator set.
  • Debt burden does not appear to be the primary economic stress driver based on the latest available indicator.

30 / 90 / 12 Month Planning Windows

Trajectory

30 day: Elevated watch

90 day: Elevated instability potential

12 month: Monitor governance and economic resilience

PMESII-Military / Police

Security / Governance Layer

Military Branches / Security Forces

  • Military branch data pending reference ingestion

Police / Internal Security Actors

  • National police / law enforcement: Identify national, regional, and local police forces before movement or planning decisions.
  • Internal security / intelligence services: Identify internal security services, detention authorities, and traveler-interaction risk before use.

Corruption / Rule of Law: ModerateModerate governance-risk planning assumption. Routine services may function, but local variance and corruption exposure should be considered.

Governance Effectiveness: ModerateMost routine functions may operate, but location-specific validation remains required.

Operational Environment

ASCOPE / PMESII Planner Inputs

Military / Police layer is in baseline mode for Philippines. AEGIS identifies required collection questions but needs verified country-specific sources for force names, chain-of-command, roles, and reliability.

  • Map police/security operating areas, checkpoints, border crossings, detention sites, and emergency command centers.
  • Identify whether police or internal security forces are credible support options, potential risk sources, or both.
  • Validate corruption and rule-of-law exposure before relying on local enforcement or administrative processes.

Country-Specific Matrix Inputs

ASCOPE / PMESII Data Injection

Data status: Baseline planner intelligence generated from available AEGIS layers • Confidence: Low

Military / Police / Security

  • armed forces / defense establishment requires source validation
  • national police / law-enforcement structure requires source validation
  • internal-security and emergency-management actors require validation

Use the matrix as a planning frame: verify who controls routes, who responds to emergencies, who can detain or restrict movement, and which actors affect access.

Governance / Rule of Law

Corruption: Corruption signal pending; treat document checks, permits, procurement, and checkpoints as potential friction points until validated.

Rule of law: Rule-of-law signal pending; validate detention, checkpoint, and emergency-support assumptions.

Institutional capacity: Institutional-capacity signal pending; validate local response, medical, telecom, transport, and administrative support.

ASCOPE Areas

  • capital/urban centers
  • border areas
  • ports/airports
  • high-crime/unrest zones
  • disaster-prone areas

ASCOPE Structures

  • embassies/consulates
  • police/security sites
  • hospitals
  • airports/ports
  • government facilities

PMESII Infrastructure

  • critical infrastructure and evacuation routes require geospatial validation

Verification Layer

Embassy / Mission Support

U.S. Embassy / Mission

Emergency support and mission details must be verified through official State Department channels before travel or planning decisions.

Collection Requirements

Information Gaps

  • Military branch names and roles require reference ingestion.
  • Police/security force structure and jurisdiction require validation.
  • Corruption, detention, checkpoint, and emergency response reliability require current reporting.
  • Route-level conditions, local event reporting, and authorized clearance requirements require current validation.