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AEGIS ATLAS Intelligence Product

Ukraine

Country Risk Snapshot • Travel Intelligence • ASCOPE/PMESII Planner Inputs

Source Confidence

Official advisory matched

Generated: Sep 27, 2026, 10:16 AM

Official Advisory
Level 4
Do Not Travel
AEGIS Risk Index
92/100
Critical
Trajectory
Rapidly Deteriorating
AEGIS assesses elevated near-term and structural risk. Treat movement and planning assumptions conservatively.
Verification
Matched
Confirm official sources before action

Executive Summary

BLUF

Ukraine is assessed at Level 4 with an AEGIS Risk Index of 92/100 (Critical). Current trajectory is Rapidly Deteriorating. There was no change to the advisory level. Armed conflict risks were updated under “unrest” indicator. Advisory summary was updated. Advisory summary Do not travel to Ukraine for any reason due to the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. embassy operations The Embassy is open and operating in Kyiv; however, Embassy personnel are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions, which may cause delays in provision of consular assistance to U.S. citizens outside of Kyiv. U.S. citizens seeking assistance, including routine services, should email KyivACS@state.gov . Review what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas. U.S. government employee travel restrictions U.S. government employees need special authorization to travel outside of Kyiv due to safety risks. Due to safety risks, the State Department does not authorize family members to join U.S. government employees in Ukraine. U.S. citizens in Ukraine are advised to take the same precautions. Armed conflict The Russia-Ukraine war continues, and non-frontline regions are also subject to Russian indiscriminate missile and drone attacks. The security situation can change quickly, and travelers should be prepared to depart immediately with little to no warning. Travelers should react to air alerts and seek appropriate shelter. Closed airspace restricts travel options, and non-frontline regions are subject to martial law restrictions, such as a nationwide curfew. U.S. government employees are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions that may be more limited than Ukrainian government restrictions under martial law. All U.S. citizens should carefully monitor U.S. government notices and local and international media outlets for information about changing security conditions and alerts to shelter in place. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should stay vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness in the event of military attacks. Download and turn on notifications for free mobile applications – which U.S. government personnel in Ukraine are required to have and monitor – that announce air alerts in real time, such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . The U.S. Embassy does not have the ability to provide real-time alerts to the general U.S. citizen community of air threats. Always know the location of your closest shelter. In the event of mortar, artillery, missile, drone, or rocket fire, follow instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately. If you feel your current location is no longer safe, you should carefully assess the potential risks involved in moving to a different location. State of emergency On February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government declared a state of emergency. Each region (oblast) decides on measures to be implemented according to local conditions. Measures could include: curfews restrictions on freedom of movement ID verification increased security inspections other measures Follow any oblast-specific state of emergency measures. Dual nationals While Ukrainian law does allow dual nationality, Ukraine will not recognize your U.S. citizenship if you are also a citizen of Ukraine. Dual citizens will be treated as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and will be required to use a Ukrainian passport upon entry and exit of the country. Men aged 23-60 with Ukrainian citizenship are also subject to exit restrictions and possible mobilization during the period of martial law. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received numerous reports of dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens encountering significant difficulties both entering and exiting Ukraine. Travelers with family ties to Ukraine should consult the nearest Ukrainian Embassy or Consulate regarding potential citizenship obligations before entering Ukraine. For more information on traveling with dual nationality, please visit our Travelers with Dual Nationality page. Aviation safety The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) prohibiting U.S. aviation operations into, out of, within, or over Ukraine. For more information, U.S. citizens should consult the FAA’s Prohibitions, Restrictions, and Notices . Risks in specific areas Occupied and conflict-affected regions of Ukraine Russia exercises de facto control over areas it occupies, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions. Fighting and security dangers continue in these areas. Do not travel to these regions. If you still choose to go to these areas, please be aware: U.S. government employees are not permitted to travel to these areas. This includes Crimea and the parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kherson that Russia occupies or where fighting is happening. The U.S. government cannot easily help U.S. citizens in these places. These areas are very dangerous. There are active military operations, checkpoints run by Russian forces, unexploded ordnance, limited access to medical care, and the risk of arbitrary detention. There is also extremely limited consular help due to safety and security risks. There is extensive Russian Federation military presence in many parts of these oblasts. Abuses against foreigners and the local population by the occupation authorities occur in these regions. There are instances of Russian forces and their proxies singling out U.S. citizens in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine for detention, interrogation, or harassment because of their nationality. U.S. citizens have also been singled out when evacuating by land through Russia-occupied territory to Russia or Belarus. For U.S. citizens in Ukraine Download free mobile applications to alert you of air alerts in your area such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to get important updates and alerts from the U.S. embassy or consulate. Enrolling helps the U.S. embassy or consulate contact you or your emergency contact in an emergency. Review the Country Security Report for Ukraine. Review our information on Travel to High-Risk Areas . Have a plan to leave in an emergency that does not depend on U.S. government help. Review our information on Crisis and Evacuation . Familiarize yourself with information on what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas . Prepare a will and designate appropriate insurance beneficiaries and/or power of attorney. Discuss a plan with loved ones regarding care and custody of children, pets, property, belongings, funeral wishes, etc. Share important documents, login information, and points of contact with loved ones so that they can manage your affairs if you are unable to return as planned to the United States. Leave DNA samples with your medical provider in case it is necessary for your family to access them. Establish your own personal security plan in coordination with your employer or host organization or consider consulting with a professional security organization. Develop a communication plan with family and your employer or host organization so that they can monitor your safety and location as you travel through high-risk areas. This plan should specify who you would contact first and how they should share the information. Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your contingency plans based on the new information. Avoid demonstrations and crowds. Ensure travel documents are valid and easily accessible. Visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website for the latest Travel Health Information for Ukraine. We highly recommend that you buy travel insurance before you travel. Check with your travel insurance provider about evacuation assistance, medical insurance, and trip cancelation coverage.

State Level 1–4

Official Advisory

Level 4 — Do Not Travel

There was no change to the advisory level. Armed conflict risks were updated under “unrest” indicator. Advisory summary was updated. Advisory summary Do not travel to Ukraine for any reason due to the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. embassy operations The Embassy is open and operating in Kyiv; however, Embassy personnel are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions, which may cause delays in provision of consular assistance to U.S. citizens outside of Kyiv. U.S. citizens seeking assistance, including routine services, should email KyivACS@state.gov . Review what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas. U.S. government employee travel restrictions U.S. government employees need special authorization to travel outside of Kyiv due to safety risks. Due to safety risks, the State Department does not authorize family members to join U.S. government employees in Ukraine. U.S. citizens in Ukraine are advised to take the same precautions. Armed conflict The Russia-Ukraine war continues, and non-frontline regions are also subject to Russian indiscriminate missile and drone attacks. The security situation can change quickly, and travelers should be prepared to depart immediately with little to no warning. Travelers should react to air alerts and seek appropriate shelter. Closed airspace restricts travel options, and non-frontline regions are subject to martial law restrictions, such as a nationwide curfew. U.S. government employees are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions that may be more limited than Ukrainian government restrictions under martial law. All U.S. citizens should carefully monitor U.S. government notices and local and international media outlets for information about changing security conditions and alerts to shelter in place. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should stay vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness in the event of military attacks. Download and turn on notifications for free mobile applications – which U.S. government personnel in Ukraine are required to have and monitor – that announce air alerts in real time, such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . The U.S. Embassy does not have the ability to provide real-time alerts to the general U.S. citizen community of air threats. Always know the location of your closest shelter. In the event of mortar, artillery, missile, drone, or rocket fire, follow instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately. If you feel your current location is no longer safe, you should carefully assess the potential risks involved in moving to a different location. State of emergency On February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government declared a state of emergency. Each region (oblast) decides on measures to be implemented according to local conditions. Measures could include: curfews restrictions on freedom of movement ID verification increased security inspections other measures Follow any oblast-specific state of emergency measures. Dual nationals While Ukrainian law does allow dual nationality, Ukraine will not recognize your U.S. citizenship if you are also a citizen of Ukraine. Dual citizens will be treated as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and will be required to use a Ukrainian passport upon entry and exit of the country. Men aged 23-60 with Ukrainian citizenship are also subject to exit restrictions and possible mobilization during the period of martial law. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received numerous reports of dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens encountering significant difficulties both entering and exiting Ukraine. Travelers with family ties to Ukraine should consult the nearest Ukrainian Embassy or Consulate regarding potential citizenship obligations before entering Ukraine. For more information on traveling with dual nationality, please visit our Travelers with Dual Nationality page. Aviation safety The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) prohibiting U.S. aviation operations into, out of, within, or over Ukraine. For more information, U.S. citizens should consult the FAA’s Prohibitions, Restrictions, and Notices . Risks in specific areas Occupied and conflict-affected regions of Ukraine Russia exercises de facto control over areas it occupies, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions. Fighting and security dangers continue in these areas. Do not travel to these regions. If you still choose to go to these areas, please be aware: U.S. government employees are not permitted to travel to these areas. This includes Crimea and the parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kherson that Russia occupies or where fighting is happening. The U.S. government cannot easily help U.S. citizens in these places. These areas are very dangerous. There are active military operations, checkpoints run by Russian forces, unexploded ordnance, limited access to medical care, and the risk of arbitrary detention. There is also extremely limited consular help due to safety and security risks. There is extensive Russian Federation military presence in many parts of these oblasts. Abuses against foreigners and the local population by the occupation authorities occur in these regions. There are instances of Russian forces and their proxies singling out U.S. citizens in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine for detention, interrogation, or harassment because of their nationality. U.S. citizens have also been singled out when evacuating by land through Russia-occupied territory to Russia or Belarus. For U.S. citizens in Ukraine Download free mobile applications to alert you of air alerts in your area such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to get important updates and alerts from the U.S. embassy or consulate. Enrolling helps the U.S. embassy or consulate contact you or your emergency contact in an emergency. Review the Country Security Report for Ukraine. Review our information on Travel to High-Risk Areas . Have a plan to leave in an emergency that does not depend on U.S. government help. Review our information on Crisis and Evacuation . Familiarize yourself with information on what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas . Prepare a will and designate appropriate insurance beneficiaries and/or power of attorney. Discuss a plan with loved ones regarding care and custody of children, pets, property, belongings, funeral wishes, etc. Share important documents, login information, and points of contact with loved ones so that they can manage your affairs if you are unable to return as planned to the United States. Leave DNA samples with your medical provider in case it is necessary for your family to access them. Establish your own personal security plan in coordination with your employer or host organization or consider consulting with a professional security organization. Develop a communication plan with family and your employer or host organization so that they can monitor your safety and location as you travel through high-risk areas. This plan should specify who you would contact first and how they should share the information. Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your contingency plans based on the new information. Avoid demonstrations and crowds. Ensure travel documents are valid and easily accessible. Visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website for the latest Travel Health Information for Ukraine. We highly recommend that you buy travel insurance before you travel. Check with your travel insurance provider about evacuation assistance, medical insurance, and trip cancelation coverage.

Source: U.S. Department of State

Confidence / Caveats

Source Status

Official advisory matched

AEGIS uses official advisories when matched, then supplements with reference, economic, security, event, and embassy-verification layers.

This packet supports planning awareness and should be validated against official travel, embassy, clearance, and command guidance before operational use.

Reference Layer

Country Reference Snapshot

Capital

Source-limited / verify

Region

Source-limited / verify

Subregion

Source-limited / verify

Population

Source-limited / verify

Currency

Source-limited / verify

Languages

Source-limited / verify

AEGIS 0–100 Category Scores

Threat Matrix

Crime

92/100 • Critical

Terrorism

82/100 • High

Civil Unrest

100/100 • Critical

Health

82/100 • High

Natural Hazard

35/100 • Moderate

Cyber

92/100 • Critical

Collection Risk

97/100 • Critical

Kidnapping

87/100 • Critical

PMESII-Economic

Economic Risk

High Economic Stress • score 62/100

Economic stress is treated as a driver for unrest, migration, corruption, criminal pressure, institutional capacity, and resiliency. It informs PMESII-Economic and trajectory analysis but does not replace official advisory guidance.

  • Recent GDP growth is 1.8%, giving a baseline indication of economic direction.
  • Inflation is elevated at 12.7%, which can contribute to food/fuel pressure, demonstrations, labor action, or crime pressure.
  • Unemployment is below the primary AEGIS watch threshold in the latest indicator set.
  • Debt burden does not appear to be the primary economic stress driver based on the latest available indicator.

30 / 90 / 12 Month Planning Windows

Trajectory

30 day: High-risk watch

90 day: Sustained deterioration risk

12 month: Structural stress likely to persist

PMESII-Military / Police

Security / Governance Layer

Military Branches / Security Forces

  • Ground Forces
  • Air Force
  • Navy
  • Air Assault Forces
  • Special Operations Forces
  • Territorial Defense Forces

Police / Internal Security Actors

  • National Police: Crime response, public order, and local police interactions.
  • National Guard: Relevant during wartime security, checkpoints, and critical infrastructure protection.
  • Security Service of Ukraine: Relevant to counterintelligence, sabotage threats, detention, and sensitive-area access.

Corruption / Rule of Law: Elevated — Elevated rule-of-law and corruption-risk planning assumption, compounded by wartime conditions and emergency authorities.

Governance Effectiveness: Elevated — State response capacity is heavily shaped by wartime conditions, regional threat, infrastructure damage, and emergency controls.

Operational Environment

ASCOPE / PMESII Planner Inputs

Ukraine's Military / Police layer identifies Ground Forces, Air Force, Navy, Air Assault Forces and key law-enforcement/security actors such as National Police, National Guard. Corruption/rule-of-law is assessed as Elevated.

  • Areas: map security-force operating areas, border zones, checkpoints, ports of entry, and protest/crime zones in Ukraine.
  • Structures: identify police/security facilities, military sites, detention locations, airports, ports, emergency command centers, and government nodes.
  • Capabilities: assess response reliability, corruption exposure, emergency support, and ability to secure movement corridors.
  • Organizations: distinguish formal security forces from malign actors, criminal groups, and politically connected power brokers.

Country-Specific Matrix Inputs

ASCOPE / PMESII Data Injection

Data status: Baseline planner intelligence generated from available AEGIS layers • Confidence: Low

Military / Police / Security

  • armed forces / defense establishment requires source validation
  • national police / law-enforcement structure requires source validation
  • internal-security and emergency-management actors require validation

Use the matrix as a planning frame: verify who controls routes, who responds to emergencies, who can detain or restrict movement, and which actors affect access.

Governance / Rule of Law

Corruption: Corruption signal pending; treat document checks, permits, procurement, and checkpoints as potential friction points until validated.

Rule of law: Rule-of-law signal pending; validate detention, checkpoint, and emergency-support assumptions.

Institutional capacity: Institutional-capacity signal pending; validate local response, medical, telecom, transport, and administrative support.

ASCOPE Areas

  • capital/urban centers
  • border areas
  • ports/airports
  • high-crime/unrest zones
  • disaster-prone areas

ASCOPE Structures

  • embassies/consulates
  • police/security sites
  • hospitals
  • airports/ports
  • government facilities

PMESII Infrastructure

  • critical infrastructure and evacuation routes require geospatial validation

Verification Layer

Embassy / Mission Support

U.S. Embassy Kyiv

Emergency support and mission details must be verified through official State Department channels before travel or planning decisions.

Collection Requirements

Information Gaps

  • Local police jurisdiction, corruption exposure, checkpoint reliability, and detention procedures require current validation.
  • Military and internal-security roles should be verified against official and current public sources.
  • Map security-force facilities, airports, ports, hospitals, detention sites, and known traveler-risk areas before use.
  • Route-level conditions, local event reporting, and authorized clearance requirements require current validation.