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AEGIS ATLAS Intelligence Product

Ukraine

Country Risk Snapshot • Travel Intelligence • ASCOPE/PMESII Planner Inputs

Source Confidence

Official advisory matched

Generated: Jul 30, 2026, 08:25 AM

Official Advisory
Level 4
Do Not Travel
AEGIS Risk Index
92/100
Critical
Trajectory
Rapidly Deteriorating
AEGIS assesses elevated near-term and structural risk. Treat movement and planning assumptions conservatively.
Verification
Matched
Confirm official sources before action

Executive Summary

BLUF

Ukraine is assessed at Level 4 with an AEGIS Risk Index of 92/100 (Critical). Current trajectory is Rapidly Deteriorating. Reissued with updates after periodic review. Do not travel to Ukraine due to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Department of State continues to advise U.S. citizens to not travel to frontline regions of Ukraine and areas along Ukraine’s border with Belarus due to presence of Russian and Belarusian military and security forces on the Belarusian side of the border, proximity to active ground combat, frequent shelling, missile and drone attacks on populated areas and civilian infrastructure, and limitations on the Embassy’s ability to provide assistance to U.S. citizens in those areas. Read the entire Travel Advisory. Some regions may have lower level of risk due to air defense capabilities and distance from active combat zones. Level 3: Reconsider Travel to the regions of Volyn, Lviv, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr. Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues, and even non-frontline regions remain subject to Russian missile and drone attacks. Travelers should react to air alerts and seek appropriate shelter. The security situation can change quickly, and travelers should be prepared to depart immediately with little to no warning. Closed airspace restricts travel options, and non-frontline regions are still subject to martial law restrictions, such as a nationwide curfew. U.S. government employees are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions that may be more limited than Ukrainian government restrictions under martial law. All U.S. citizens should carefully monitor U.S. government notices and local and international media outlets for information about changing security conditions and alerts to shelter in place. The security situation in Ukraine remains unpredictable. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should stay vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness in the event of military attacks. Download and turn on notifications for free mobile applications – which U.S. government personnel in Ukraine are required to have and monitor – that announce air alerts in real time, such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . The U.S. Embassy does not have the ability to provide real-time alerts to the general U.S. citizen community of air threats. Know the location of your closest shelter at all times. In the event of mortar, missile, drone, or rocket fire, follow instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately. If you feel your current location is no longer safe, you should carefully assess the potential risks involved in moving to a different location. On February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government declared a state of emergency. Each region (oblast) decides on measures to be implemented according to local conditions. Measures could include curfews, restrictions on the freedom of movement, ID verification, and increased security inspections, among other measures. Follow any oblast-specific state of emergency measures. Ukrainian law does not recognize dual nationality, and Ukraine will not recognize your U.S. citizenship if you are also a citizen of Ukraine. Dual citizens will be treated as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and will be required to use a Ukrainian passport upon entry and exit of the country. Men aged 18-60 with Ukrainian citizenship are also subject to exit restrictions and possible mobilization during the period of martial law. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received numerous reports of dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens encountering significant difficulties both entering and exiting Ukraine. Travelers with family ties to Ukraine should consult the nearest Ukrainian Embassy or Consulate regarding potential citizenship obligations before entering Ukraine. For more information on traveling with dual nationality, please visit our Travelers with Dual Nationality page. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) prohibiting U.S. aviation operations into, out of, within, or over Ukraine. For more information, U.S. citizens should consult the FAA’s Prohibitions, Restrictions, and Notices . U.S. citizens seeking assistance, including routine services, should email KyivACS@state.gov . Please review what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas . The Embassy is open and operating in Kyiv; however, Embassy personnel are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions, which may cause delays in provision of consular assistance to U.S. citizens outside of Kyiv. Occupied Territories: Most of the international community, including the United States and Ukraine, do not recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea in 2014, nor the September 2022 purported annexation of four other Ukrainian oblasts -- Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. There is extensive Russian Federation military presence in many parts of these oblasts. There are also abuses against foreigners and the local population by the occupation authorities in these regions, particularly against those who are seen as challenging Russia’s occupation. There are instances of Russian forces and their proxies singling out U.S. citizens in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine for detention, interrogation, or harassment because of their nationality. U.S. citizens have also been singled out when evacuating by land through Russia-occupied territory or to Russia or Belarus. Although Russia’s occupation severely restricts the Embassy’s access and ability to provide services in these areas, the Department of State and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv continue to remotely provide certain emergency consular services to U.S. citizens in Crimea as well as four other Ukrainian oblasts partially occupied by Russia – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Read the country information page for additional information on travel to Ukraine. Travel to High-Risk Areas: If you choose to travel to Ukraine, you should consider taking the following steps: Visit our website on Travel to High-Risk areas . Draft a will and designate appropriate insurance beneficiaries and/or power of attorney. Discuss a plan with loved ones regarding care/custody of children, pets, property, belongings, non-liquid assets (collections, artwork, etc.), funeral wishes, etc. Share important documents, login information, and points of contact with loved ones so that they can manage your affairs if you are unable to return as planned to the United States. Leave DNA samples with your medical provider in case it is necessary for your family to access them. Establish your own personal security plan in coordination with your employer or host organization or consider consulting with a professional security organization. Develop a communication plan with family and/or your employer or host organization so that they can monitor your safety and location as you travel through high-risk areas. This plan should specify who you would contact first and how they should share the information. Enroll your trip in the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter . Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist . If you are currently in Ukraine: Read the Department’s country information page on Ukraine. Familiarize yourself with information on what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas . Have a contingency plan in place that does not rely on U.S. government assistance. Download free mobile applications to alert you of air alerts in your area such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your contingency plans based on the new information. Avoid demonstrations and crowds. Ensure travel documents are valid and easily accessible. Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Notices related to your travel. Get a COVID vaccine to facilitate your travel. Understand the COVID testing and vaccine requirements for all countries that you will transit through to your destination. Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter . Review the Country Security Report for Ukraine. Review the Traveler’s Checklist. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk areas .

State Level 1–4

Official Advisory

Level 4Do Not Travel

Reissued with updates after periodic review. Do not travel to Ukraine due to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Department of State continues to advise U.S. citizens to not travel to frontline regions of Ukraine and areas along Ukraine’s border with Belarus due to presence of Russian and Belarusian military and security forces on the Belarusian side of the border, proximity to active ground combat, frequent shelling, missile and drone attacks on populated areas and civilian infrastructure, and limitations on the Embassy’s ability to provide assistance to U.S. citizens in those areas. Read the entire Travel Advisory. Some regions may have lower level of risk due to air defense capabilities and distance from active combat zones. Level 3: Reconsider Travel to the regions of Volyn, Lviv, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr. Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues, and even non-frontline regions remain subject to Russian missile and drone attacks. Travelers should react to air alerts and seek appropriate shelter. The security situation can change quickly, and travelers should be prepared to depart immediately with little to no warning. Closed airspace restricts travel options, and non-frontline regions are still subject to martial law restrictions, such as a nationwide curfew. U.S. government employees are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions that may be more limited than Ukrainian government restrictions under martial law. All U.S. citizens should carefully monitor U.S. government notices and local and international media outlets for information about changing security conditions and alerts to shelter in place. The security situation in Ukraine remains unpredictable. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should stay vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness in the event of military attacks. Download and turn on notifications for free mobile applications – which U.S. government personnel in Ukraine are required to have and monitor – that announce air alerts in real time, such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . The U.S. Embassy does not have the ability to provide real-time alerts to the general U.S. citizen community of air threats. Know the location of your closest shelter at all times. In the event of mortar, missile, drone, or rocket fire, follow instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately. If you feel your current location is no longer safe, you should carefully assess the potential risks involved in moving to a different location. On February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government declared a state of emergency. Each region (oblast) decides on measures to be implemented according to local conditions. Measures could include curfews, restrictions on the freedom of movement, ID verification, and increased security inspections, among other measures. Follow any oblast-specific state of emergency measures. Ukrainian law does not recognize dual nationality, and Ukraine will not recognize your U.S. citizenship if you are also a citizen of Ukraine. Dual citizens will be treated as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and will be required to use a Ukrainian passport upon entry and exit of the country. Men aged 18-60 with Ukrainian citizenship are also subject to exit restrictions and possible mobilization during the period of martial law. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received numerous reports of dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens encountering significant difficulties both entering and exiting Ukraine. Travelers with family ties to Ukraine should consult the nearest Ukrainian Embassy or Consulate regarding potential citizenship obligations before entering Ukraine. For more information on traveling with dual nationality, please visit our Travelers with Dual Nationality page. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) prohibiting U.S. aviation operations into, out of, within, or over Ukraine. For more information, U.S. citizens should consult the FAA’s Prohibitions, Restrictions, and Notices . U.S. citizens seeking assistance, including routine services, should email KyivACS@state.gov . Please review what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas . The Embassy is open and operating in Kyiv; however, Embassy personnel are subject to movement, curfew, and activity restrictions, which may cause delays in provision of consular assistance to U.S. citizens outside of Kyiv. Occupied Territories: Most of the international community, including the United States and Ukraine, do not recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea in 2014, nor the September 2022 purported annexation of four other Ukrainian oblasts -- Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. There is extensive Russian Federation military presence in many parts of these oblasts. There are also abuses against foreigners and the local population by the occupation authorities in these regions, particularly against those who are seen as challenging Russia’s occupation. There are instances of Russian forces and their proxies singling out U.S. citizens in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine for detention, interrogation, or harassment because of their nationality. U.S. citizens have also been singled out when evacuating by land through Russia-occupied territory or to Russia or Belarus. Although Russia’s occupation severely restricts the Embassy’s access and ability to provide services in these areas, the Department of State and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv continue to remotely provide certain emergency consular services to U.S. citizens in Crimea as well as four other Ukrainian oblasts partially occupied by Russia – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Read the country information page for additional information on travel to Ukraine. Travel to High-Risk Areas: If you choose to travel to Ukraine, you should consider taking the following steps: Visit our website on Travel to High-Risk areas . Draft a will and designate appropriate insurance beneficiaries and/or power of attorney. Discuss a plan with loved ones regarding care/custody of children, pets, property, belongings, non-liquid assets (collections, artwork, etc.), funeral wishes, etc. Share important documents, login information, and points of contact with loved ones so that they can manage your affairs if you are unable to return as planned to the United States. Leave DNA samples with your medical provider in case it is necessary for your family to access them. Establish your own personal security plan in coordination with your employer or host organization or consider consulting with a professional security organization. Develop a communication plan with family and/or your employer or host organization so that they can monitor your safety and location as you travel through high-risk areas. This plan should specify who you would contact first and how they should share the information. Enroll your trip in the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter . Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist . If you are currently in Ukraine: Read the Department’s country information page on Ukraine. Familiarize yourself with information on what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas . Have a contingency plan in place that does not rely on U.S. government assistance. Download free mobile applications to alert you of air alerts in your area such as Air Raid Siren and Alarm Map . Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your contingency plans based on the new information. Avoid demonstrations and crowds. Ensure travel documents are valid and easily accessible. Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Notices related to your travel. Get a COVID vaccine to facilitate your travel. Understand the COVID testing and vaccine requirements for all countries that you will transit through to your destination. Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency. Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter . Review the Country Security Report for Ukraine. Review the Traveler’s Checklist. Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk areas .

Source: U.S. Department of State

Confidence / Caveats

Source Status

Official advisory matched

AEGIS uses official advisories when matched, then supplements with reference, economic, security, event, and embassy-verification layers.

This packet supports planning awareness and should be validated against official travel, embassy, clearance, and command guidance before operational use.

Reference Layer

Country Reference Snapshot

Capital

Source-limited / verify

Region

Source-limited / verify

Subregion

Source-limited / verify

Population

Source-limited / verify

Currency

Source-limited / verify

Languages

Source-limited / verify

AEGIS 0–100 Category Scores

Threat Matrix

Crime

92/100 • Critical

Terrorism

82/100 • High

Civil Unrest

100/100 • Critical

Health

82/100 • High

Natural Hazard

35/100 • Moderate

Cyber

92/100 • Critical

Collection Risk

97/100 • Critical

Kidnapping

87/100 • Critical

PMESII-Economic

Economic Risk

High Economic Stress • score 62/100

Economic stress is treated as a driver for unrest, migration, corruption, criminal pressure, institutional capacity, and resiliency. It informs PMESII-Economic and trajectory analysis but does not replace official advisory guidance.

  • Recent GDP growth is 1.8%, giving a baseline indication of economic direction.
  • Inflation is elevated at 12.7%, which can contribute to food/fuel pressure, demonstrations, labor action, or crime pressure.
  • Unemployment is below the primary AEGIS watch threshold in the latest indicator set.
  • Debt burden does not appear to be the primary economic stress driver based on the latest available indicator.

30 / 90 / 12 Month Planning Windows

Trajectory

30 day: High-risk watch

90 day: Sustained deterioration risk

12 month: Structural stress likely to persist

PMESII-Military / Police

Security / Governance Layer

Military Branches / Security Forces

  • Ground Forces
  • Air Force
  • Navy
  • Air Assault Forces
  • Special Operations Forces
  • Territorial Defense Forces

Police / Internal Security Actors

  • National Police: Crime response, public order, and local police interactions.
  • National Guard: Relevant during wartime security, checkpoints, and critical infrastructure protection.
  • Security Service of Ukraine: Relevant to counterintelligence, sabotage threats, detention, and sensitive-area access.

Corruption / Rule of Law: ElevatedElevated rule-of-law and corruption-risk planning assumption, compounded by wartime conditions and emergency authorities.

Governance Effectiveness: ElevatedState response capacity is heavily shaped by wartime conditions, regional threat, infrastructure damage, and emergency controls.

Operational Environment

ASCOPE / PMESII Planner Inputs

Ukraine's Military / Police layer identifies Ground Forces, Air Force, Navy, Air Assault Forces and key law-enforcement/security actors such as National Police, National Guard. Corruption/rule-of-law is assessed as Elevated.

  • Areas: map security-force operating areas, border zones, checkpoints, ports of entry, and protest/crime zones in Ukraine.
  • Structures: identify police/security facilities, military sites, detention locations, airports, ports, emergency command centers, and government nodes.
  • Capabilities: assess response reliability, corruption exposure, emergency support, and ability to secure movement corridors.
  • Organizations: distinguish formal security forces from malign actors, criminal groups, and politically connected power brokers.

Country-Specific Matrix Inputs

ASCOPE / PMESII Data Injection

Data status: Baseline planner intelligence generated from available AEGIS layers • Confidence: Low

Military / Police / Security

  • armed forces / defense establishment requires source validation
  • national police / law-enforcement structure requires source validation
  • internal-security and emergency-management actors require validation

Use the matrix as a planning frame: verify who controls routes, who responds to emergencies, who can detain or restrict movement, and which actors affect access.

Governance / Rule of Law

Corruption: Corruption signal pending; treat document checks, permits, procurement, and checkpoints as potential friction points until validated.

Rule of law: Rule-of-law signal pending; validate detention, checkpoint, and emergency-support assumptions.

Institutional capacity: Institutional-capacity signal pending; validate local response, medical, telecom, transport, and administrative support.

ASCOPE Areas

  • capital/urban centers
  • border areas
  • ports/airports
  • high-crime/unrest zones
  • disaster-prone areas

ASCOPE Structures

  • embassies/consulates
  • police/security sites
  • hospitals
  • airports/ports
  • government facilities

PMESII Infrastructure

  • critical infrastructure and evacuation routes require geospatial validation

Verification Layer

Embassy / Mission Support

U.S. Embassy Kyiv

Emergency support and mission details must be verified through official State Department channels before travel or planning decisions.

Collection Requirements

Information Gaps

  • Local police jurisdiction, corruption exposure, checkpoint reliability, and detention procedures require current validation.
  • Military and internal-security roles should be verified against official and current public sources.
  • Map security-force facilities, airports, ports, hospitals, detention sites, and known traveler-risk areas before use.
  • Route-level conditions, local event reporting, and authorized clearance requirements require current validation.